Poster

Mitigation and Conclusion

This blog has pushed against the prevailing wisdom and environmental rhetoric of man-made sea level rise threatening all low lying coral island nations via submergence. Through study of the scientific literature it has shown that only a small number of coral islands may face an uncertain future, in part because of eustatic sea level rise however most of the ‘blame’ for this uncertain future is related to their tectonic and latitudinal context.


In the case of the small number of islands that are shrinking in land area is there anything to be done to prevent submergence or should the leadership decision of the President of the Maldives to buy up land in India, Sri Lanka and Australia for his citizens to relocate to be followed?


Whilst a legally binding and effective control on carbon dioxide emissions over the next century would reduce the extent of warming and therefore reduce the thermal expansion of water and land ice melting, possibly to a scenario such as (B1, shown in an earlier post), sea level rise would still occur due to momentum in the atmosphere causing up to a 38cm rise in sea level by 2099. However it is not the opinion of this author that there will be any such concerted effort to reduce carbon emissions in the near-medium future.


One novel method to increase calcification rates (and therefore accretion rates of coral reefs) was mentioned in yesterday’s post, that of ‘Biorock’, whereby a metal mesh dome is sunk and a low voltage current is fed through it from a solar or wind source, this after one year is covered by coral. The coral has been able to developed rapidly due to the electric current which has inhibited the corals usual competitors. This provides a feeding ground for reef eating fish (such as parrot fish) which then excrete sand, causing reef, and coral island accretion. This is one method of creating an ‘artificial reef’, other less technical reef building methods involve the use of a growing platform such as the popular 'reef ball' program. This non-profit organisation uses the following growing platforms:

 

These platforms provide a large surface area for growth, and are ideal for fisheries as they provide a safe haven from predation. Over 550,000 of these reef balls have been deployed worldwide, providing a home for coral and encouraging biodiversity.

The effectiveness of these programs for encouraging reef accretion rates is yet to be seen, however in theory they should work and are a relatively inexpensive way for often poor coral island nations to combat submergence.

What this blog would like to see is a Webb and Kench style investigation of land area over as long a time period as possible of every low lying coral island worldwide, coupled with an assessment of their latitudinal and tectonic situation resulting in a categorical list of endangered and safe nations. From this an effective strategy could be drawn up by worldwide institutions such as the UN to combat submergence and in rare occasions relocation the populations of islands which are tectonically submerging too rapidly. Through this intimate knowledge of the situation there will be no environmental rhetoric or questionable compensation claims to be railed against by the likes of this blog. And once again science will lead policy as it always should.

News updates

Before bringing together all the aspects of this blog and detailing possible mitigation efforts a quick update of the news coverage of coral islands and their unceratain futures would be useful.

The following article is a detailed account of the Maldives in general and details the threat of climate change. http://abitabout.com/Maldives. On a political front crucially:

'On 22 April 2008, then Maldives President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom pleaded for a cut in global greenhouse gas emissions, warning that rising sea levels could submerge the island nation of the Maldives.'

The Real Science blog posted a 'Settled Science' page listing coral islands future as unsettled. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/settled-science/.

'Coral island atolls to sink' - Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands

By


John A. Church Neil J. White and John R. Hunter

And Conversly

'Coral island atolls to rise' - The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific

By


Arthur P. Webb and Paul S. Kench

Both papers are by respected authors in respected journals and have been covered in this blog. This highlights the need to be specific about which islands are in danger and which are not, as due to techtonic and climatic variations, similar looking but geographically distant coral atolls in the same ocean may face very different futures.

Furthermore new techniques are arrising to combat the effects of less suited (warmer) oceans which are rising and contain more threats (human and biological) to coral growth. The following method being particularly ingenious: http://jonbowermaster.com/blog/2011/04/electrified-reefs-may-bring-coral-reefs-back/. Since it is the digestion and excreation of this coral by Parrotfish which can produce 90kg of island building sand (Thurman and Webber, 1984), the protection of the coral is paramount to island acreation rates.

This is a rapidly developing topic, and hopefully this blog has demonstrated the need for concerned parties to stay up to date, with both sides of the scientific/political/cultural debate, to best asses the future of low lying coral islands.

References:

Thurman, H.V., Webber, H.H. 1984.  "Chapter 12, Benthos on the Continental Shelf". Marine Biology. Charles E. Merrill Publishing. pp. 303–313.

Persisting ideas.

Before going on to talk about mitigation of any possible threats posed by sea level rise, however tenuous the threats or small in number the effected islands, i want to further detail the extent to which much of the academic and political world is unaware or unwilling to be aware of the often old scientific literature surrounding sea level rise and coral islands. Continuing to repeat the rhetoric of man made climate change causing sea level rise which coral islands are supposedly helpless to deal with. 

This video is from a professor of physical geography at Wales University in 2009:

Whether he personally does understand the full and complex nature of the interactions between sea level rise and he has just not gone into further detail is unimportant, this video and many like it will be influence the general public incorrectly.

This video features the President of the Maldives supporting these ideas. Obviously with a vested interest in receiving compensation, i quote him 'if you have some money, please give it to someone who doesn't have. If you have technology please give it to someone who doesn't have':

Never is a coral atoll islands unique ability to rise with the tides mentioned. Whilst i have clearly shown that to some small extent a small number of islands may be being submerged, the reasons for this are not certain to be eustatic sea level change. The narrative of this blog has clearly been one of a skeptic to this notion, the reason for this skeptical narrative is thought to be in part due to what seems to be a 'band-wagon' of uninformed and or dubious scientists, native peoples, politicians and media organisations making sweeping statements about the perilous future of coral atolls and reefs.

In the next post, as originally planned for this post, mitigation efforts to combat inundation will be assessed.