Poster

Mitigation and Conclusion

This blog has pushed against the prevailing wisdom and environmental rhetoric of man-made sea level rise threatening all low lying coral island nations via submergence. Through study of the scientific literature it has shown that only a small number of coral islands may face an uncertain future, in part because of eustatic sea level rise however most of the ‘blame’ for this uncertain future is related to their tectonic and latitudinal context.


In the case of the small number of islands that are shrinking in land area is there anything to be done to prevent submergence or should the leadership decision of the President of the Maldives to buy up land in India, Sri Lanka and Australia for his citizens to relocate to be followed?


Whilst a legally binding and effective control on carbon dioxide emissions over the next century would reduce the extent of warming and therefore reduce the thermal expansion of water and land ice melting, possibly to a scenario such as (B1, shown in an earlier post), sea level rise would still occur due to momentum in the atmosphere causing up to a 38cm rise in sea level by 2099. However it is not the opinion of this author that there will be any such concerted effort to reduce carbon emissions in the near-medium future.


One novel method to increase calcification rates (and therefore accretion rates of coral reefs) was mentioned in yesterday’s post, that of ‘Biorock’, whereby a metal mesh dome is sunk and a low voltage current is fed through it from a solar or wind source, this after one year is covered by coral. The coral has been able to developed rapidly due to the electric current which has inhibited the corals usual competitors. This provides a feeding ground for reef eating fish (such as parrot fish) which then excrete sand, causing reef, and coral island accretion. This is one method of creating an ‘artificial reef’, other less technical reef building methods involve the use of a growing platform such as the popular 'reef ball' program. This non-profit organisation uses the following growing platforms:

 

These platforms provide a large surface area for growth, and are ideal for fisheries as they provide a safe haven from predation. Over 550,000 of these reef balls have been deployed worldwide, providing a home for coral and encouraging biodiversity.

The effectiveness of these programs for encouraging reef accretion rates is yet to be seen, however in theory they should work and are a relatively inexpensive way for often poor coral island nations to combat submergence.

What this blog would like to see is a Webb and Kench style investigation of land area over as long a time period as possible of every low lying coral island worldwide, coupled with an assessment of their latitudinal and tectonic situation resulting in a categorical list of endangered and safe nations. From this an effective strategy could be drawn up by worldwide institutions such as the UN to combat submergence and in rare occasions relocation the populations of islands which are tectonically submerging too rapidly. Through this intimate knowledge of the situation there will be no environmental rhetoric or questionable compensation claims to be railed against by the likes of this blog. And once again science will lead policy as it always should.

News updates

Before bringing together all the aspects of this blog and detailing possible mitigation efforts a quick update of the news coverage of coral islands and their unceratain futures would be useful.

The following article is a detailed account of the Maldives in general and details the threat of climate change. http://abitabout.com/Maldives. On a political front crucially:

'On 22 April 2008, then Maldives President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom pleaded for a cut in global greenhouse gas emissions, warning that rising sea levels could submerge the island nation of the Maldives.'

The Real Science blog posted a 'Settled Science' page listing coral islands future as unsettled. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/settled-science/.

'Coral island atolls to sink' - Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands

By


John A. Church Neil J. White and John R. Hunter

And Conversly

'Coral island atolls to rise' - The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific

By


Arthur P. Webb and Paul S. Kench

Both papers are by respected authors in respected journals and have been covered in this blog. This highlights the need to be specific about which islands are in danger and which are not, as due to techtonic and climatic variations, similar looking but geographically distant coral atolls in the same ocean may face very different futures.

Furthermore new techniques are arrising to combat the effects of less suited (warmer) oceans which are rising and contain more threats (human and biological) to coral growth. The following method being particularly ingenious: http://jonbowermaster.com/blog/2011/04/electrified-reefs-may-bring-coral-reefs-back/. Since it is the digestion and excreation of this coral by Parrotfish which can produce 90kg of island building sand (Thurman and Webber, 1984), the protection of the coral is paramount to island acreation rates.

This is a rapidly developing topic, and hopefully this blog has demonstrated the need for concerned parties to stay up to date, with both sides of the scientific/political/cultural debate, to best asses the future of low lying coral islands.

References:

Thurman, H.V., Webber, H.H. 1984.  "Chapter 12, Benthos on the Continental Shelf". Marine Biology. Charles E. Merrill Publishing. pp. 303–313.

Persisting ideas.

Before going on to talk about mitigation of any possible threats posed by sea level rise, however tenuous the threats or small in number the effected islands, i want to further detail the extent to which much of the academic and political world is unaware or unwilling to be aware of the often old scientific literature surrounding sea level rise and coral islands. Continuing to repeat the rhetoric of man made climate change causing sea level rise which coral islands are supposedly helpless to deal with. 

This video is from a professor of physical geography at Wales University in 2009:

Whether he personally does understand the full and complex nature of the interactions between sea level rise and he has just not gone into further detail is unimportant, this video and many like it will be influence the general public incorrectly.

This video features the President of the Maldives supporting these ideas. Obviously with a vested interest in receiving compensation, i quote him 'if you have some money, please give it to someone who doesn't have. If you have technology please give it to someone who doesn't have':

Never is a coral atoll islands unique ability to rise with the tides mentioned. Whilst i have clearly shown that to some small extent a small number of islands may be being submerged, the reasons for this are not certain to be eustatic sea level change. The narrative of this blog has clearly been one of a skeptic to this notion, the reason for this skeptical narrative is thought to be in part due to what seems to be a 'band-wagon' of uninformed and or dubious scientists, native peoples, politicians and media organisations making sweeping statements about the perilous future of coral atolls and reefs.

In the next post, as originally planned for this post, mitigation efforts to combat inundation will be assessed.

Do Darwin points and tectonics hold the answer?

To better asses the future of coral islands within the context of sea level rise an understanding of the mechanics of coral island development is necessary. Charles Darwin although famous for his work on evolution during the 1836 Beagle voyage, also solved the puzzle of atoll formation. R.W.Grigg (1982) references a note Darwin wrote about Tahiti and Moorea “Hence if we imagine such an Island after long successive intervals, to subside a few feet in a manner similar but with a movement opposite to the continent of S.  America; the coral would be continued upwards, rising from the foundation of the encircling reef. In time, the central land would sink beneath the level of the sea and disappear but the coral would have completed its circular wall. Should we not then have a coral Island? Under this view we must look at a Lagoon Island as a monument raised by myriads of tiny architects to mark the spot where a former land lies buried in the depths of the ocean.”

Figure 1 below visualizes this process. Source: The Australian.

However the investigation of academic material by this blog has clearly shown that it is possible for there to be stages after (3.) in Figure 1 above, whereby the Atoll becomes submerged. This submergence has become apart of the de facto rhetoric of the environmentalist movement, suggesting that sea level rise caused by global warming is the sole answer to all atoll submergence. However Grigg (1982) suggested another reason for this submergence is due to underlying tectonics, he studied the Hawaiian Archipelago to test his assertion of the existence of a ‘Darwin Point’. A Darwin point is a latitudinal boundary at which due to the subduction of the underlying plate and unfavorable environmental conditions for Coral to continue to calcify coral islands become submerged. Grigg (1982) detailed the Darwin point in the following sketch shown below in Figure 2.

For the Hawaiian Archipelago Grigg (1982) put the point at 28 degrees North as his results had suggested that at this point calcification rates were not high enough to cope with isostatic and eustatic sea level rise.

Grigg (1982) goes further, suggesting that these Darwin points will occur at other latitudes in different oceans and geographic locations depending on regional climate and tectonic pasts. This could therefore account for a proportion of the 14% of Pacific islands found to have lost land area over recent decades by Webb and Kench (2010). The argument for a large scale loss of low lying coral islands due specifically to global warming induced sea level rise without a role of other mechanisms seems to have been undermined yet again by examination of the scientific evidence.

However to some extent it still appears that human induced sea level rise has a role to play in the submergence of coral islands. By increasing the rate of sea level rise this ‘Darwin Point’ could move progressively south, threatening more coral islands, sooner than otherwise would of been the case. Therefore in the next post, i will attempt to make informed suggestions as to the actions these threatened human populations should take to  mitigate negative impacts.

References:

Grigg, R.W. 1982. Darwin Point: A Thershold for Atoll Formation. Coral Reefs. 1. 29-34.

Webb and Kench. 2010. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003

Security into the next millennia?

Last weeks blog post through analysis of paleohistoric records stamped a ‘safe’ label on the current and near term predicted rates of sea level rise to 2100. Even under the most extreme future sea level rise scenarios rates were 4-14 mm/year under the 10-20mm/year possible accretion rates supported by Neumann and Macintyre (1985) and Montaggioni et al. (1997). However the security of an island nation should be analyzed further than 90 years into the future if its economy is to be able to draw investment from overseas and from its own people. Gillet et al. 2011 produced a paper based around computer simulations of global warming to the year 3000, thereby allowing the future of low lying island nations to be assessed.

In this paper one key and possible scenario is focused upon, that being a complete halt of carbon dioxide emissions from the year 2100 onwards to the year 3000 and its effects on the Earth to this date (ZE2100). The other is an unrealistic scenario where carbon dioxide emissions halted in 2010 to 3000 (ZE2010). The following figure (1) has been taken from this study showing the movements of this gas between 2000 and 3000:

From the graph (b) after carbon dioxide levels rapidly drop for a hundred years they only slowly fall down to around 550ppm by the year 3000, meaning that 55% of the pre industrial rise in carbon dioxide will still be present in the earths atmosphere by the year 3000. The impacts of this carbon dioxide are simulated by a high resolution 3rd Generation Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM3) and and advanced Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM3.5). The simulation for the ZE2100 scenario showed that the thermal expansion of water would cause sea levels to rise by 1 meter by 3000 (as shown below in figure 2), and the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf would contribute a rise in sea level of 3-4 meters. The following figure details the climatic response to carbon dioxide levels to the year 3000:

The above warming is a result of carbon dioxide levels and as has been previously shown directly effects sea level.

Therefore a cumulative rise in sea levels to the year 3000 could be 5 meters, this would equate to a rate of just over 5mm/year rise averaged out from 2011-3000. Below the average predicted by the IPCC to 2100 of 6mm/year under the worst case scenario, and again below the 10-20mm/year rates of accretion possible by coral islands set by Neumann and Macintyre (1985) and Montaggioni et al. (1997). This does not thought give a ‘safe’ stamp to these islands to the year 3000, as we have seen with the Holocene transgression where rates averaged 14mm/year at certain times such as the Bolling-allerod MWP-1A rates can reach 40/50mm/year (Peltier, 2002) causing low lying coral islands to be submerged. If similar rapid meltwater pulses occurred between now and the year 3000, rates may once again outstrip accretion rates. Furthermore it may be unrealistic to expect the world to have transferred to a completely carbon free economy by 2100, causing carbon dioxide to continue to be released, and ultimately increasing predicted rates of sea level rise to the year 3000.

The findings of this post and last weeks post would appear to undermine those who suggest low lying coral islands are under a current threat from eustatic sea level rise. The next post the role of underlying tectonics and isostatic sea level rise will be analyzed to see if it can answer any of the questions remaining surrounding this debate, namely ‘why are a limited number of islands being submerged?’.

References:

Gillett, N.P., Arora, V.K., Zickfeld, K., Marshal, S.J., Merryfield, W.J. 2011. Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions. Nature Geoscience. DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1047

Neumann, A.C., and Macintyre, I.G., 1985. Reef response to sea level rise: Keep-up, catch-up or give-up: Fifth International Coral Reef Congress, Tahiti, Proceedings. 3. 105–109.

Looking to the past to see the future.

The debate over the future of low lying coral island nations is difficult to resolve without detailed scientific study of land area changes in the vain of Webb and Kench’s (2010) investigation. And even with these studies, they do little to reassure against future more rapid rises in sea level which have been predicted by the IPCC. The above IPCC (2007) figure clearly shows an increasing rate of sea level rise.

By 2100 sea level may have risen by half a meter, such a rapid rise in level is unprecedented in the estimates of recent past and throughout the Instrument record. To assess whether low lying coral islands will be able to cope this high rate the paleohistoric record of coral growth must be analyzed. The island chain of Hawaii is surrounded by many deeply submerged reefs which were once shallow reefs and low lying islands, they have been focused upon by many scientific investigations as these submerged reefs may indicate the future for present day low lying coral islands. One reef in particular looked at by Webster et al. (2004) is now at -150 meters below sea level, and has been radiocarbon dated (calibrated) to have been submerged between 15.2 and 14.7 ka (Moore and Fornari, 1984). It has therefore been suggested by Webster et al. (2004) that this coral island was submerged during the last deglaciation, specifically the first (MWP-1A) of two rapid sea level rises; MWP-1A (14.2–13.8 ka) and MWP-1B (11.5–11.1 ka). The delay of 0.5 ka is due to the lag in time for a the coral structure to be submerged below a critical 30-40 meter depth, once this occurs the type of coral which will grow will shift from Porites coral (reef building) to deep water coralline algal growth (static) (Webster et al., 2004). Only at this layer in preserved coral can it be indicated that the structure was submerged.

 The MWP-1A and MWP-1B periods are parts of the Holocene transgression where it has been estimated that sea level rose on average of 14 mm/year between 15 ka and 6 ka (Bloom, 1971; Chappell, 1974; Adey, 1978), however during short periods of the transgression such as MWP-1A this rate of sea level rise reached 40-50mm/year (Peltier, 2002). Webster et al. (2004) then goes further, referencing studies which suggest that coral reefs can not accrete at rates faster than 10-20 mm/year (Neumann and Macintyre, 1985; Montaggioni et al., 1997), and therefore widely indicating that during very rapid sea level rise events such as MWP-1A coral structures are at risk of becoming submerged.

This has wide ranging implications on the near term future of low lying coral islands and there supporting reef ecosystems which are critical to the well-being of coral island inhabitants (Pernetta, 1992). More specifically, an emissions scenario based projection of sea level rise is detailed in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (2007) and is shown below:

(all above ranges are in cm)

 If the worst case of the A1F1 emissions scenario, which represents a more global, economically focused future, heavily dependent on fossil fuels is correct and by 2099 sea level is at 59 cm above today then the rate will still be only around 5.5-6mm per year, way below Peltier’s (2020) MWP-1A rise and even far below the max accretion rates of 10-20mm/year suggested by Neumann and Macintyre (1985) and Montaggioni et al. (1997).

This would appear to stamp paleohistories mark upon the current sea level rises as ‘safe’ however the IPCC widely admits that the certainty of its models is low, clearly including in the above scenario table ‘Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow’, therefore rates could rise at higher rates than 6mm/year. Furthermore the security of an island nation should be longer than to 2100. Future posts will attempt to assess the security of these nations to the next millennium and detail the role underlying tectonic activity on the pacific islands.

References:

Adey, W. 1978. Coral reef morphogenesis: A multidimensional model. Science. 202. 831-837.

Bloom, A. 1971. Glacial-eustatic and isostatic controls of sea level since the last glaciation. In: Turekian K (ed) The late cenozoic glacial ages. Yale University Press. 355-379.

Chappell, J. 1974. relationship between sea levels, oxygen 18 variations and orbital perturbations during the last 250,000 years. Nature. 252. 199-202.
Montaggioni, L.F., Cabioch, G., Camoin, G.F., Bard, E., Faure, G., Dejardin, P., and Recy, J., 1997. A 14,000 year continuous record of reef growth in a mid-Pacific island: Geology.  25. 555–559.

Moore, J.G., and Fornari, D.J., 1984. Drowned reefs as indicators of the rate of subsidence of the Island of Hawaii: Geology. 92. 752–759.

Neumann, A.C., and Macintyre, I.G., 1985. Reef response to sea level rise: Keep-up, catch-up or give-up: Fifth International Coral Reef Congress, Tahiti, Proceedings. 3. 105–109.

Pernetta, J.C. 1992. Impacts of Climate Change and Sea -Level Rise on Small Islands States: National and International Responses.

Webster, J.M., Clague, A.D., Riker-Coleman, K., Gallup, C., Braga, J.C., Potts, D., Moore, J.G., Winterer, E.L., Paull, C.K. 2004. Drowning of the 150 m reef off Hawaii: A casualty of Global meltwater pulse 1A? Geology. 32 (3). 249-252.

Coral Islands and there Reefs. Economic and Ecological Significance.

C.R.Wilikinson (1996) concluded that coral reefs would fair more favourably to sea level rise than nearby coral islands, citing a lack of a growth mechanism, whilst a well-accepted depositional mechanism now exists allowing islands to grow, the fate of these related landforms and their inhabitants is now known to be strongly intertwined.

An article by Greg Ansley summarising Julian Cribb's book The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do To Avoid It cites 'decimation of coral reefs' as a key factor as to the food crisis which human populations face, specifically those living on nearby coral reefs who depend on the food supplied by these landforms. Worst case scenarios by Wilkinson (1993) predict 70 per cent losses of coral reefs by 2030 through a range of anthropogenic impacts if mitigation efforts are not put into place. When this is put in the context Pernetta (1992) set of 'dependence' of this maritime resource for food and trade by atoll nations in the pacific then the question of whether the nations are 'doomed' or not due to sea level rise seems secondary to the threats posed by ecological and economic destruction of these nations resources.

http://reefrelief.org/ is an organisation dedicated to 'preserving and protecting living coral reef ecosystems'. http://reefrelief.org/threats-to-coral-reefs/ at this site details Wilkinson's (1993) wide range of threats anthropogenic activities pose to coral reefs, and therefore coral islands. A useful summary which also breaks down the threats into direct and indirect categories has been made by the Microdoc's Youtube Channel:

Unfortunately Pernetta (1992) concluded that these small coral island nations are 'ill equipped to handle existing environmental problem which will worsen as climate changes', this limited ability to tackle these problems could in the near term actually 'doom' these low lying coral island nations, forcing populations to flee, even if sea level rise itself does not.

References:

Wilikinson.C.R. 1996. Global change and coral reefs: impacts on reefs, economies and human cultures. Global Change Biology. 2, 547-558

Pernetta, J.C. 1992. Impacts of Climate Change and Sea -Level Rise on Small Islands States: National and International Responses.

Changing scientific opinions

Scientific discourse has markedly changed over the past 70 years, evolving away from a negative outlook on the future viability of coral reefs and coral islands. A well publicised, and often repeated quote is that of F.W. Goreau which was used in a briefing to UN climate delegates in 2007, he stated in 1948 that ' Coral reefs are NOT resilient, they are the most sensitive and fragile of ecosystems and we have already lost most of them'. On a more recent timescale there have been many predictions of coral island nations facing economic and humanitarian disasters; ultimately their populations becoming environmental refugees (Pernetta, 1992; Wilkinson, 1996; Mimura, 1999). Wilkinson summarised that some coral island nations could be 'render(ed) ... uninhabitable through contamination of groundwater and increased erosion'.

Emotive accounts support these predictions of submergence. The following video depicts the memories of a old man who states 'When i was a small boy this island was big, as i grew older the island got smaller', whilst this is a direct account of recent events of a the Carteret Islands its reliability is extremely questionable:

These emotive accounts which appose recent scientific investigations by Webb & Kench (2010) tied with prevailing scientific discourse have led to popular opinion becoming favourable towards coral islands being 'doomed', the following video summarises this popular opinion:

Most pessimistic predictions made for coral island nations also revolve around the idea that sea water intrusion is 'polluting' the fresh water lens found in the centre of most coral islands, these ideas stem from problems with rising salinity of the freshwater. However there are some more sceptical climate change blogs have taken a more practically based approach to this problem, namely 'omniclimate' which posted in late 2009; http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/coral-atolls-and-sea-level-rise/. Showing that rising salinity was due to over use of a limited resource, rather than saline intrusion. 

The debate

The debate surrounding the future of low lying coral island nations does not centre on whether or not sea level is rising but on how much of this rise is man-made and how much is natural as well as whether these coral islands can react to the increase. According to Webb (2010, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003) coral islands can react to sea-level rise through growth and accretion of material. This seminal article goes on to show that in 43% of 27 investigated islands the net land area had increased over recent decades, only 14% had in fact reduced in area, seemingly discrediting popular ideas of shore line erosion on pacific coral islands. Webb produced a presentation which can be found at: http://ftp.grida.no/poussart/Steph/ in which he shows how he used satellite imagery to map shore line movement. The most telling page of which can be seen below:

However, many have rejected this investigation, citing conclusions within the paper which state that ‘these low-lying atolls remain immediately and extremely vulnerable to inundation or sea water flooding.’ Confusion around sea level rise helps to encourage people to take ‘sides’ in the debate. The Sea Level Rise Foundation is a non-profit organisation dedicated to raising the 'global awareness' of the destructive impacts of sea level rise on low lying coral island nations. Its blog, found at: http://sealevelrise.blogspot.com/ is a regularly updated feed on the current impacts of sea level rise upon coral islands. Often it simply cites poor scientifically ungrounded newspaper articles as fact, resulting in negative comments about the usefulness of the foundation.

The scientific community seems to have changed its general opinion on the short-medium term future of atolls over the past two decades. As the next post will show an early pessimism which has been replaced by more optimisim through investigation.

Thermal water expansion and land ice melting.

The scientific basis of this blog is based upon the impacts of global warming. Whilst global warming has been described as 'unequivocal' by the IPCC's 2007 summary for policy makers and is largely uncontested (at least by the scientific community) the nature and extent of these impacts upon different environments is uncertain and often contested. 


The IPCC (2007) has summarised that the current sea level rise experienced today (which is estimated to be at 1.7 ± 0.3 mm yr⁻¹ by Church and White (2006, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826) is almost entirely down to man made global warming. Below is a helpful and hilarious(?) summary from Climate Central of how global warming and sea level rise are intrinsically linked:

Sea level rise is thought to be a threat to coral island's as they are low lying, often less than a meter above sea level. This endangers the human populations which inhabit these islands. Much media interest surround these peoples plight, the following video from Greenpeace detailing their struggles:

However an international scientific and political argument surrounds the debate, one side supporting this popular theory of sea level rise inundating coral islands while the other staunchly rejecting this, citing coral islands ability to grow as water levels rise as they have always done. 

http://www.suite101.com/content/climate-change-and-the-rising-sea-level-threat-to-pacific-islands-a244575

This blog sets out to come to a conclusions about the fate of coral island nations and their inhabitants.